Eric Seufert makes the case that ads are the only way for Apple to grow App Store revenue in the near future. Every other growth lever is either blocked outright or too slow to matter within the next few quarters.
- Raising the commission is off the table, because regulators have cornered it. The EU has already forced a cut to 26 %. A US court is still weighing what Apple may charge on link-outs, and Japan and Brazil are pushing open payments outside the store.
- Developer tools from WWDC 2026, retention messaging, bundles, volume purchasing, etc., may help apps monetize better, but over a horizon of years, not months.
- Advertising is the one route where the machinery already exists. The campaign management API Apple launched this year is already built to deploy to new placements.
Phil Schiller stepped back from App Store leadership in late August, reportedly uneasy about where the new CEO wants to take it. Apart from being 66 and understandably wanting to step back more toward retirement, of course.